After trading down twice and out of the back end of the first round on Thursday night, the Seahawks find themselves in a position to control and dominate day of the 2017 NFL Draft after trading with the Falcons to drop from #26 to #31 and picking up a 3rd round pick (#95) and a 7th (#249) to move back. At #31, they then made a deal with division opponent Santa Clara and picked up an additional 4th round pick (#111) simply to move back three more spots. They now sit at pick #34, the second pick in the 2nd round, and have avoided having to pay a first round bonus and give whoever they take a 5-year deal. This is one of the ways the Seahawks keep their cap managed so successfully while other teams struggle to find room.
So in essence, the Seahawks dropped 8 spots, picked up 3 additional picks and will likely get the player they would have taken at #26 anyway, but without the 1st round cap implications. None of the player selected with picks #26-32 were likely on the Seahawks radar at all. That's what you call drafting like a boss.
With the trades, the Seahawks now have the following picks:
Round 2 - Picks #34 & pick #58.
Round 3 - Picks #90, #95, #102, #106
Round 4 - Pick #111
Round 6 - Pick #210
Round 8 - Picks #226 & #249
Of players thought to be on the Seahawks short list and that make sense from a needs standpoint, they can select from the following group:
25 KEVIN KING CB WASHINGTON
27 CHIDOBE AWUZIE CB COLORADO
28 FORREST LAMP OG WESTERN KENTUCKY
32 CAM ROBINSON OT ALABAMA
42 BUDDA BAKER FS WASHINGTON
The Packers have the first pick in round 2, and while they are fielding calls about trading the pick, it is possible they could snatch one of the players the Seahawks like at #33. They have been most closely connected with Western Kentucky OG Forrest Lamp. But if they take another player or trade the pick to a team looking for a QB, say Notre Dame's Deshone Kizer or Cal's Davis Webb, the Seahawks will be sitting pretty. If the Packer don't trade the pick, the Seahawks will be fielding the same calls. I think they should resist the temptation.
While it might be tempting to take an OL at #34, to me the bigger need is to add a long-term starter opposite Richard Sherman at outside corner. That translates to Kevin King of the University of Washington, although honestly I'd be satisfied with any of the players on this list for one reason or another. King is a virtual Sherman clone, Lamp can be an instant starter, Robinson will probably eventually be a starting LT, Baker is an ideal nickel/FS part-time starter, and Awuze has a cool Ewok sounding name.
My guess is that if the Packers don't trade out, the Seahawks will, but I hope they stay put and take a DB. Here's my wishlist for the day 2 picks:
Round 2 - 34: KEVIN KING CB WASHINGTON
Round 2 - 58: SIDNEY JONES CB WASHINGTON (yes, you have to wait a year but he's a high 1st round talent.
Round 3 - 90: NICO SIRAGUSA OG SAN DIEGO STATE
Round 3 - 95: JAKE BUTT TE MICHIGAN
Round 3 - 102: CARLOS WATKINS DT CLEMSON
Round 3 - 106: JOE MATHIS DE WASHINGTON
Of course, they'll take none of my guys, but it's nice to dream.
Showing posts with label Budda Baker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Budda Baker. Show all posts
Friday, April 28, 2017
Tuesday, April 4, 2017
Should the Seahawks Trade UP (In Order to Trade Down) in the 2017 NFL Draft?
Recently, the question came up regarding the idea of the Seahawks trading UP, rather than down in this year's NFL draft. Such a move would be highly unusual for the Seahawks, who have either stayed put or (more frequently) traded DOWN in the first round since Pete Carroll and John Schneider assumed the reigns of the franchise in 2010. That trend could change this year, but possibly not for the reasons you might suspect.
The major issue in any trade scenario is obviously finding a trading partner that wants to do a deal. If say the Seahawks coveted a certain player-- perhaps CB Kevin King of UW-- they might want to move up from pick #26 to get him. In order to do so, they must find a trading partner who wants what the Seahawks have, the #26 pick and probably one of the Seahawks three late 3rd round picks (#90, #102 & #106).
If we look at a standardized Draft Trade Chart, those picks add up to 1,014 points, enough to get the Seahawks as high as the 15th or 16th pick in the 1st round.
However, looking at this draft, it really would not be worth making such a move simply because this draft is fairly even in terms of talent after the first 6-7 picks. In other words, they can get as good a player at #26 as they're likely to get at #15.
They can also get just as good a player at #40 as they can at #15, for that matter.
The Seahawks pattern is almost always to trade down to obtain more picks. This year, even though they have only two day 3 picks (a 6th and a 7th), there seems to be very little talent available in rounds 4 and 5 that are worth trading back for. A better strategy might be an even more dramatic one: Trade UP in the first round in order to trade back out into the early 2nd round.
Here's how it would work.
All drafts are invariably driven by the supply of available quarterback prospects. This year's class is pretty weak, with probably only Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky justifying 1st round grades. That said, there are probably three other QBs, Patrick Mahomes, DeShone Kizer and Davis Webb who could slip into the back end of the 1st round. Quarterback hungry teams include the New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns and unfortunately for the Seahawks, the Houston Texans. The problem for the Seahawks in making a trade back into the 2nd round is that the Texans pick 25th, one spot in front of them. Any team willing to part with draft capital in order to snag one of the three back-end prospects is going to have to get in front of the Texans in order to pull it off. That leaves the Seahawks in a kind of no man's land, stuck taking the best available player at their current slot when they'd rather trade back and get an equivalent player and add picks.
One way to rectify this is to trade UP, rather than down, with the idea of then trading back out of the first round to a team wanting to leap frog the Texans and get, say, Mahomes.
The Seahawks #26 pick is worth roughly 700 points on a typical trade value chart. Their 3rd round picks at #90, #102 and #106 are worth 140, 92 and 82 respectively. Theoretically, packaging #26 and #106 would net the Seahawks 782 points, enough to get them as high as the #22 pick in the first round, the Miami Dolphins slot. The Dolphins have only seven picks, with a big gap between #97 in the 3rd round and #166 in the fifth. Dropping back 4 slots in the 1st round in order to add pick #106 might appeal to them.
So the first move is:
Dolphins get #26 and #106
Seahawks get #22
Now that the Seahawks are positioned ahead of the Texans, they need a QB hungry team to trade with. If the Browns take position players at #1 and #12 in the draft, they would still need to add a young QB to the mix to get the position settled for the future. The Seahawks might make a perfect trading partner.
The Browns would need to get to 780 points, and could offer a package of picks #33, the first pick in the 2nd round, and #65, the first pick in the 3rd round, and pick #175 in the 5th round, a round in which the Seahawks currently have no selection. This would add up to 866 points, so the Seahawks would have to throw in pick #102 in the 3rd round to balance the trade deficit (#22+#102=872). So the Browns would get the QB of their choice at #22, and a compensatory 3rd round pick #102. The Seahawks would get to move out of the 1st round and avoid a 1st round bonus, 5th year option and cap hit, and still get an equivalent player at #33. They would also move up 25 spots to the front end of the 3rd round and add a pick in the 5th round which they can use to target a specific player, trade up again or simply add depth.
So the 2nd move is:
Browns get #22 and #106
Seahawks get #33, #65 & #175
That leaves the Seahawks with picks #33, #58, #65, #90, #175, #210, and #226. the advantage of this scenario is that they get a higher pick in round 3, and avoid the 1st round cap charges.
As far as who I'd take with these picks, I think we're all in agreement that the Seahawks biggest needs are at CB, OL and DL. At #33, I'd snatch up Kevin King if he's still on the board, and if not I'd be looking at players like Washington's Budda Baker, Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley or USCs Adoree' Jackson. At #58, I'd come back with a DL like Michigan's Chris Wormley or Alabama's Dalvin Tomlinson. Colorado's tall corner Ahkello Witherspoon might be a consideration here too, because a player like Wormley, Tomlinson or Clemson's Carlos Watkins might still be available at #65. At #65, barring these scenarios, I'd be looking at a big tough OL like Utah's Issac Asiata. You could also package your 3rd day picks, which the Seahawks have not had much success with lately, and move up as high as pick #152 in the 5th round.
So, if you held a gun to my head, here's the way I'd go assuming King is gone at #33.
#33 - Budda Baker, S/Nickel - Washington
#58 - Ahkello Witherspoon - CB - Colorado
#65 - Issac Asiata - OG - Utah
#90 - Carlos Watkins - DT - Clemson
#175 - Best TE available
#210 - Best LB/Edge available
#226 - Best WR/Gunner available
I'm not saying this scenario will happen. I'm just saying that something like it makes more sense than you might think. If you see the Seahawks trade up on Day 1, I'd be surprised if they don't already have a deal in place to move back down again afterwards.
The Browns of course, or another team like them, could also just make a deal with the Dolphins directly. But, keep in mind that the Dolphins may not have the picks the Browns want in return, or the Dolphins may not want to go all the way back to the 2nd round.
We'll see what happens.
-Mike Bara
The major issue in any trade scenario is obviously finding a trading partner that wants to do a deal. If say the Seahawks coveted a certain player-- perhaps CB Kevin King of UW-- they might want to move up from pick #26 to get him. In order to do so, they must find a trading partner who wants what the Seahawks have, the #26 pick and probably one of the Seahawks three late 3rd round picks (#90, #102 & #106).
If we look at a standardized Draft Trade Chart, those picks add up to 1,014 points, enough to get the Seahawks as high as the 15th or 16th pick in the 1st round.
They can also get just as good a player at #40 as they can at #15, for that matter.
The Seahawks pattern is almost always to trade down to obtain more picks. This year, even though they have only two day 3 picks (a 6th and a 7th), there seems to be very little talent available in rounds 4 and 5 that are worth trading back for. A better strategy might be an even more dramatic one: Trade UP in the first round in order to trade back out into the early 2nd round.
Here's how it would work.
All drafts are invariably driven by the supply of available quarterback prospects. This year's class is pretty weak, with probably only Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky justifying 1st round grades. That said, there are probably three other QBs, Patrick Mahomes, DeShone Kizer and Davis Webb who could slip into the back end of the 1st round. Quarterback hungry teams include the New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns and unfortunately for the Seahawks, the Houston Texans. The problem for the Seahawks in making a trade back into the 2nd round is that the Texans pick 25th, one spot in front of them. Any team willing to part with draft capital in order to snag one of the three back-end prospects is going to have to get in front of the Texans in order to pull it off. That leaves the Seahawks in a kind of no man's land, stuck taking the best available player at their current slot when they'd rather trade back and get an equivalent player and add picks.
One way to rectify this is to trade UP, rather than down, with the idea of then trading back out of the first round to a team wanting to leap frog the Texans and get, say, Mahomes.
The Seahawks #26 pick is worth roughly 700 points on a typical trade value chart. Their 3rd round picks at #90, #102 and #106 are worth 140, 92 and 82 respectively. Theoretically, packaging #26 and #106 would net the Seahawks 782 points, enough to get them as high as the #22 pick in the first round, the Miami Dolphins slot. The Dolphins have only seven picks, with a big gap between #97 in the 3rd round and #166 in the fifth. Dropping back 4 slots in the 1st round in order to add pick #106 might appeal to them.
So the first move is:
Dolphins get #26 and #106
Seahawks get #22
Now that the Seahawks are positioned ahead of the Texans, they need a QB hungry team to trade with. If the Browns take position players at #1 and #12 in the draft, they would still need to add a young QB to the mix to get the position settled for the future. The Seahawks might make a perfect trading partner.
The Browns would need to get to 780 points, and could offer a package of picks #33, the first pick in the 2nd round, and #65, the first pick in the 3rd round, and pick #175 in the 5th round, a round in which the Seahawks currently have no selection. This would add up to 866 points, so the Seahawks would have to throw in pick #102 in the 3rd round to balance the trade deficit (#22+#102=872). So the Browns would get the QB of their choice at #22, and a compensatory 3rd round pick #102. The Seahawks would get to move out of the 1st round and avoid a 1st round bonus, 5th year option and cap hit, and still get an equivalent player at #33. They would also move up 25 spots to the front end of the 3rd round and add a pick in the 5th round which they can use to target a specific player, trade up again or simply add depth.
So the 2nd move is:
Browns get #22 and #106
Seahawks get #33, #65 & #175
That leaves the Seahawks with picks #33, #58, #65, #90, #175, #210, and #226. the advantage of this scenario is that they get a higher pick in round 3, and avoid the 1st round cap charges.
As far as who I'd take with these picks, I think we're all in agreement that the Seahawks biggest needs are at CB, OL and DL. At #33, I'd snatch up Kevin King if he's still on the board, and if not I'd be looking at players like Washington's Budda Baker, Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley or USCs Adoree' Jackson. At #58, I'd come back with a DL like Michigan's Chris Wormley or Alabama's Dalvin Tomlinson. Colorado's tall corner Ahkello Witherspoon might be a consideration here too, because a player like Wormley, Tomlinson or Clemson's Carlos Watkins might still be available at #65. At #65, barring these scenarios, I'd be looking at a big tough OL like Utah's Issac Asiata. You could also package your 3rd day picks, which the Seahawks have not had much success with lately, and move up as high as pick #152 in the 5th round.
So, if you held a gun to my head, here's the way I'd go assuming King is gone at #33.
#33 - Budda Baker, S/Nickel - Washington
#58 - Ahkello Witherspoon - CB - Colorado
#65 - Issac Asiata - OG - Utah
#90 - Carlos Watkins - DT - Clemson
#175 - Best TE available
#210 - Best LB/Edge available
#226 - Best WR/Gunner available
I'm not saying this scenario will happen. I'm just saying that something like it makes more sense than you might think. If you see the Seahawks trade up on Day 1, I'd be surprised if they don't already have a deal in place to move back down again afterwards.
The Browns of course, or another team like them, could also just make a deal with the Dolphins directly. But, keep in mind that the Dolphins may not have the picks the Browns want in return, or the Dolphins may not want to go all the way back to the 2nd round.
We'll see what happens.
-Mike Bara
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