Did the Seahawks actually "overpay" for Rasheed Shaheed? Did the Bengals really give Boye Mafe $20 million a year? (No).
Would Ken Walker have really cost the #Seahawks $15M a year to keep (Probably No).
A thread:
In all the hand wringing over yesterday's opening of the NFL free agency signing period, we saw a lot of smoke and BS thrown around about big numbers and "overpays." Some even complained that the Seahawks overpaid for Rasheed Shaheed and were happy to not pay "too much" to Ken Walker.
These low info posters gleefully pointed to Walker getting $14.350M APY as an "overpay" and expressed chagrin that the Seahawks gave Shaheed $17M APY.
First off. if anybody is citing gross APY when talking numbers, they simply aren't very bright. Avoid them. The Bengals are NOT giving Mafe $20M per year. He won't come close to that. APY is a straw man, thrown out there by agents and parroted by the media who want to stay in their good graces.
No player, with rare exception, ever comes close to getting his APY on any deal he signs. They are always cut or extended long before they finish the deal. Agents put these fake numbers out to make contracts look bigger and get more clients. Media cites them to help agents and keep their inside access. But APY numbers mean almost less than "dead cap" hits, which are almost as silly and meaningless in terms of the actual cap.
The only numbers that matter in any deal are guarantees and cap hits. Guarantees are what the player actually gets paid for certain. Cap hits are what the teams have to work around to budget and acquire new players. So, let's look at some deals from yesterday.
The numbers from the Walker and Mafe deals aren't in yet, but when they are, I can guarantee you they will be far less than the reported $13.3M APY for Walker and $20M APY for Mafe. But the numbers are in for Shaheed, Josh Jobe and Coby Bryant.
Let's start with Shaheed. His reported deal was 3 Years, $51 million/$17M APY. Sounds like a lot. It actually isn't.
The guarantees in his deal (signing bonus/guaranteed salary/roster bonus) come to only $25,295,000. Spread over the 3 years, that's a real APY of only $8,431,666. Now, you can certainly add his first-year base salary and per game roster bonuses to that, because he's not getting cut before the season starts, but that only pushed him to $28,295,000 in guaranteed money and the APY becomes $9,431,666.
That $9,431,666 APY might actually be a little high, because I'm not sure if the per game roster bonuses are guaranteed in 2027 and 2028. If they are not, then the REAL value of the deal comes to only $23.765M, or $7.922M APY. That's a bargain for Rasheed Shaheed. So is $9,431,666.
But what about "muh cash!" and Escrow accounts? As I've pointed out in my videos, the escrow outlay is minimal, because money paid at the time of signing isn't counted. As near as I can tell, the escrow deposit on RS's new deal is zero, because all his guarantees are 2026.
And what about the cap hits? His 2026 hit is a mere $4.53M.
His 2027 cap hit is $9.333M
2028: $10.083M
The Seahawks can save $4.666M or $7.75M in either of those years if they want to cut him.
And please, don't talk to me about "dead money." That's another press trope...
It means nothing. Dead cap is nothing but the sunk cost of money you've already spent and promises you agreed to. It's just an accounting ledger entry. It only might matter to an owner if he has to write a check for the residual guarantees. All that matters is that a team can clear cap space to spend on replacement players if a guy doesn't do a job.
One famous example most recently is Russell Wilson. Despite having a top 10 season as a passer in 2023, The Denver Broncos decided they wanted to move on from him and get rid of the bad contract they gave him so they could find a QB who fit Sean Payton's short, quick, one-read passing system.
So, they took a post June 1st designated $83 million "dead cap" hit. But they didn't have to pay him that in cash. They only paid Wilson $39M for guarantees they hadn't paid him yet.
So how much would the Seahawks have to pay Shaheed in cash if they wanted to cut him and save the cap space in 2027 or 2028?
It looks like nothing. Zilch. Zero. Nada.
Now let's look at Josh Jobe's deal.
Reported: 3 Years, $24M/$8M APY
Actual: 3 Years, $9.25M/$3.08M APY
Cash Deposit: $0.00 Escrow
Again, since the guaranteed $$$ is all up front, they don't have to put a dime in the feared "escrow accounts." So, this is a great deal by the Seahawks.
Now let's look at the Chicago Bears "overpay" of Coby Bryant.
Reported: 3 Years, $40 Million/$13.333 APY
Actual: 3 Years, $ 28,250,000/$9,416,666
Cash Escrow Deposit: $12, 250,000
Byrant's deal is different, because his 2nd year base salary of $12, 250,000 is guaranteed. But it is still a decent deal for a young ascending player who has 7 interceptions in the last two years as a part time starter. $9.4 APY doesn't seem like too much to retain a guy like that, but oh well. I guess it does to John Schneider.
Now, Ken Walker's number aren't in. But it is reported as such:
Reported: 3 Years, $43.05M/$14.35M APY
Actual: 3 Years, $ 28.7M/$9.566M
We don't yet know the structure, the cap hits or cash reserves that have to be met. But the question is, would you pay $9.56M per year to keep a guy who was the best RB in the league the 2nd half of the year, who you spent a high draft pick on, coached up, who plays his best in big games, doesn't fumble, is 25 and just entering his prime? I sure would.
John Schneider didn't. And now we have a gaping hole RB and no easy fix to fill it. To be honest, I would have just tagged Walker. Yes, the cash outlay may have been more, but at least we wouldn't be scrambling to replace an elite talent in a tepid year for RBs. But that's just me.
So where are we today? According to OTC, the Seahawks have about $43M in cap space left over for signings or trades. Historically, they have consistently spent 97% of the available cap space in the Jodi Allen era, meaning their real effective cap space is $41.71M.
Last year, they spent about $12.3M on IR & practice squad. Their rookie pool is $3,181,897. So you can subtract that from the available spending. That leaves about $26.288M in actual cap space. Enough to make one more big splash if they want to.
Of course, they can always make more space with simple restructures. Doing simple restructures on Sam Darnold and Leonard Williams would clear an additional $49M in cap space, giving them $75.85M in 2026 and $80.2M in 2027. Plenty to do any business they want, including believe it or not, re-signing Riq Woolen if they want to.
And what about those dreaded "cash outlays" and escrow accounts?
So far, between Drake Thomas, Rasheed Shaheed and Josh Jobe, they've spent only $32.25M in cash, none of which has to go into escrow. As a speculative scenario, if they had tagged Walker, they would have to pay him when he signs the Franchise Tag tender would be $14,293,000. So add that to the cash out total and you have a total of 46,543,000 in expenses for Walker, Jobe, Thomas and Shaheed.
According to Forbes, The Seahawks made $137M in profit in 2024. That number is likely to go far higher in 2025.
137M - $46.543M = $90.457M.
So it appears that based on 2024 profits alone, the Seahawks sit at $26.288M in cap space, with at least $90.457M cash on hand. With a little tweaking, they can add $49M in cap space to play with.
Based on this analysis, the Seahawks appear to have money coming out their ears. Let's see what they do with it.
Personally, I would have paid out the extra money to Walker, Shaheed, Thomas and Jobe to keep the Super Bowl team together. But what do I know? John Schneider is a genius and I'm not. Or so I'm told.
Hope this clears things up.
Seahawk Boy Mike Bara
PS - I'm sure I've missed something in here somewhere. If you find it, please let me know so I can correct this article. Thanks for reading.
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