The Seahawk Boys Fearless and Stupid NFL Blog: 2024

If you keep him, you're keeping a WR1 that's going to be 27 years old this year. You're going to have give him a new deal that averages about $30 million a year for his late prime years (27, 28, 29), with cap hits about half that for his 1st two years on the new deal. And you'll be spending that when you don't really have an elite QB1 to take advantage of his talents.

Currently, per OTC, the #Seahawks have $1.5 million in 2024 cap space, and need $9,366,188 just to sign their rookies. For 2025, the Seahawks are currently $663K OVER the cap.

IF they can get an "AJ Brown Deal" from a team like the Steelers (2025 1st and 2025 3rd) post June 1, their caps for the next two years will look like this:

2024: $18.5M.

2025: $21.3M.

35-year-old journeyman Geno Smith will be taking up $38.5M in Cap space, Tyler Lockett $30.9M, Draymont Jones $23.3M and Leonard Williams $29.15M.

Cutting all four of those players over 30 years old (Jones would be 29) in addition to trading DK this year would clear $92.39M in 2025 cap space.

In addition, they would have two 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, two 4ths and a 5th in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Trading DK would likely leave them with $5-$8 million in cap space after the deal to find a new WR1 through trade or free agency for 2024. They could probably sign Hunter Renfrow, Allen Robinson, Michael Thomas or Mecole Hardman to fill DK's spot on a 1-year deal for 2024. (All available per Spotrac).

This would leave them with $92.4M in cap space and 8 valuable draft picks to fill their needs. That's enough cap to make a run at Dak Prescott, should he make it to free agency, or enough draft capital to trade up to the top 3 to take the QB of their choice, like Texas' Quinn Ewers in the 2025 draft.

Either way, their QB1 need is filled for the next 5 years...

So which situation would you rather be in?

$1.5M in 2024 cap space, and needing to cut or extend a bunch of 30+year old players just to sign your rookies...

- OR -

Enough 2024 Cap space to sign your rookies, take care of the practice squad and IR, sign a veteran (or two) to boost your 2024 outlook, and enough 2025 Cap space and draft capital to get any players you want, and make the team younger and better all-around?

This would leave the Seahawks with needs at the following positions:

QB1
WR1
DT2
DT3
WR3

I assume JSN would be WR2 in this scenario. In all likelihood, the #Seahawks would be picking between 12-20 in the 1st round, and the #Steelers 21-32.

So I get $92.3M in cap space, two 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, two 4ths, a fifth and younger roster if I trade this guy June 1? I'm sorry, but I'm doing it.

If the #Seahawks had taken Spencer Rattler in the 4th or 5th round in 2024, I might be saying something different. Keep DK and let him grow with the young QB.

But if you're telling me I get Dak or Ewers, plus all those other resources to fill out my roster just by trading DK, I'm doing it.

I will miss him, but gone are the days when we had Hall of Famer Russell Wilson slinging him the ball 50 yards downfield.

I'm doing it.

Mike

Video Link:

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Should There Be a Quarterback Competition in Seattle?

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Please Do Not Ever Reference ESPN's "QBR" as a Meaningful Metric to me. Ever.

QBR is a Joke: ProFootballTalk

Friday, April 26, 2024

Falcons win the 2024 Draft. Seahawks are the Big Losers in Round 1

The Falcons won this draft, and the Seahawks are the big losers.

Once again, they continue to operate from antiquated ideas about how the draft works. The quarterbacks went early because that's how you win Super Bowls in 2024. I told you this would happen, because when a team needs a quarterback, they don't wait on them anymore. That trend started last year. These QBs were NOT "over-valued." These teams are just smarter than the Seahawks and realize that in today's NFL, you have to have a QB with star quality to contend.

Bo Nix is a prime example. Rob Staton thought he was a 3rd round pick. I saw him play in the Pac-12 championship game here in Vegas and walked out of the Stadium thinking he was a 1st round pick. Time will tell which one of us is right. Everyone agreed he was a great fit in Denver. So they didn't wait to take him at a "value" position. They just took him the first chance they had. The Falcons recognized Penix' elite value. So they took him. Meanwhile, the Seahawks still seem to think it's 2010 and you "win" the draft by taking the 16th best player at 16. No, if you want Penix, you go get him. You don't care what the price is. That's how the Chiefs got Mahomes.

The Seahawks should have passed on a DT they didn't really need, traded down to 23, picked up another 5th and a 2025 3rd and 4th. That's the trade that was on the table from the Vikings, The Seahawks passed. The next pick, the Jaguars took the deal the Seahawks passed on.

Winning!

At 23, they should have taken Spencer Rattler. He would have been there. I don't care where he is "valued." It would have been the right move for a team that wants to get back to the Super Bowl. He has many 1st round traits. Rob is the one who convinced me of that. If a guy has 1st round traits, and is a quarterback, you take him. Period.

As to Murphy, I don't see how he improves the team at all. Middle 1st round DTs almost never do. Does anyone actually think he's better than Leonard Williams, who they just spent a 2nd round pick and a ton of money on? Or for that matter Jarran Reed or even Draymont Jones? I don't. And even if he is, how many games will that win for the Seahawks next year? Or in 2025? If he isn't the second coming of Cortez Kennedy or Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox, he won't make much of an impact beyond the guys they already have. Coaching and scheming are far more likely to be the reasons for any improvement for the defense.

The only way the Seahawks can salvage this disaster is if they have a secret plan to jump into the high 2nd round and take Rattler. There isn't another QB beyond him who has a chance to be good enough to win a Super Bowl. The 2025 QB class is ass. It's now or never.

Rattler won't get past the Raiders at #44, In fact, I expect them or the Saints to come up and get him in the early 30s. And so, for the 3rd straight year, the Seahawks will miss out on the most important position in football.

My prediction is the Seahawks will do nothing, then say "we tried to get a QB." Trying won't win you a Super Bowl. You have to actually do something at the position.

I hear John Schneider loves DK Metcalf. If that's true, why are you wasting his best years with Geno Smith and Sam Howell? There is no point in keeping him and paying him north of $28 million dollars a year if those two are your quarterbacks. I'm beyond understanding WTF the Seahawks are doing. They seem to think it's still 2010, and you can win Super Bowls with "defense" and a running game. Sorry. You need an elite QB, and you don't have one.

The other teams won the draft because they were desperate to get a top QB. The Seahawks weren't.

They should have been.

Anyway, that's all I've got for today. Go away now...

Mike